Oscars 2024 predictions: who will win big at the 96th Academy Awards?
For the 96th time in human history, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is again preparing to unravel the red carpet and prepare the canapés for a night of Hollywood indulgence, where the biggest stars in world cinema congregate. While not quite the spectacular event that it used to be, the Oscars still hold a great deal of cultural weight, inspiring audiences to seek out the very best films the industry has to offer.
Of course, much of the night’s glitz and glamour is given to the illustrious ‘Best Picture’ award alongside ‘Best Actor’, ‘Best Actress’ and the supporting categories a little further down the podium. Yet, as time goes on, more and more people have begun to find more value in the categories reduced to the bottom of the pecking order, such awards as ‘Best Live-Action Short Film’ and ‘Best Documentary Feature’ that celebrate burgeoning talents with urgent personal messages.
Still, for the time being, it’s the significant awards that get the most attention, for better or for worse. This year, it seems to be Christopher Nolan’s time to shine, with the filmmaker having long occupied the very top of the cinema industry, being nominated for an Academy Award on five previous occasions. But, his magnificent box office sensation, Oppenheimer, is now due to take home the lion’s share of awards.
Of course, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things and even Jonathan Glazer’s Zone of Interest will have a few things to say about Nolan’s chances. Explore our entire rundown of how we think the 96th Academy Awards will go down below.
Oscars 2024 predictions:
‘Best Picture’
There are some Oscar years where trying to pick a winner from the lucky bunch of nominees is an impossible lucky dip, but then there are others where a frontrunner is self-evident. Having already won the Bafta for ‘Best Film’ while sweeping the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards, which often provide a pretty good prediction of who will win at the Academy Awards, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer looks like a dead-cert for the win for ‘Best Picture‘.
People may roll their eyes when they hear it, but the fact is that the Oscars is as much a political battle as it is an artistic competition, and many believe it’s Nolan’s ‘time’ to receive some plaudits for his remarkable career to date. While he was in the Oscars spotlight for Memento, Inception and Dunkirk over the years, he has never walked away with a trophy, and considering the box office work that Oppenheimer also performed in summer 2023, it’s an obvious choice for the top prize.
While there are nine other nominees, only one film could knock Oppenheimer off its perch, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things. Primed to take home ‘Best Picture’ in 2019 for The Favourite, the Greek filmmaker will be seeking vengeance, and his latest movie is undoubtedly capable of an upset, thanks to its subversive artistic attitude and spectacular lead performance from Emma Stone. Still, it looks like Nolan has this in the bag.
Predicted winner: Oppenheimer
- Barbie
- Maestro
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- The Holdovers
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Zone of Interest
- Killers of the Flower Moon
‘Best Director’
After ‘Best Picture’, it’s arguably ‘Best Director’, which is the most anticipated award at the Oscars. After all, the director of a movie serves as the brains of the operation, in control of each department and all the other limbs that adhere to their creative vision, bringing their ideas to life on screen. This year sees Christopher Nolan go head-to-head with Academy favourites Yorgos Lanthimos and Martin Scorsese, plus Jonathan Glazer and Justine Triet.
While each filmmaker has undoubtedly earned their nominations, it’s hard to believe that Christopher Nolan won’t take home ‘Best Director’ for his unbelievable work on Oppenheimer. Every facet of the historical drama, from the intense acting performances to the sound and cinematography, is all we expect from Nolan, and the Academy will undoubtedly recognise his efforts.
Predicted winner: Christopher Nolan
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
- Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
‘Best Actor’
Despite having given exemplary cinematic performances ever since the turn of the new millennium, the Irish actor Cillian Murphy has only just received his first Oscar nomination. Better still, it looks like he will take home the prize, too, filling the mighty shoes of the titular American scientist in Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer to help create a spectacular epic that defied all critical and commercial expectations
Paul Giamatti is the only other person who could challenge for his crown, but it appears as though Murphy is too far ahead already, thanks to the multiple awards already under his belt. But, in all this excitement, spare a thought for poor Bradley Cooper, who has been nominated for five Oscars without a win.
Predicted winner: Cillian Murphy
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro
- Colman Domingo – Rustin
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
‘Best Actress’
Emma Stone undoubtedly gave one of the performances of her career in Poor Things as a post-suicide Victorian woman brought back to life, and Sandra Hüller established herself as one of Europe’s most significant modern actors in Anatomy of a Fall. Still, the hotly contested ‘Best Actress’ award at this year’s Oscars looks as though it will go to Lily Gladstone for her effort in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon.
In playing Mollie Burkhart, the victim of capitalist and misogynistic exploitation, opposite Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro, Gladstone became the first Native American to be nominated for the ‘Best Actress’ award, and thanks to a performance that was at one intense and yet sympathetic, she looks set to go one better and take the prize home for good.
Predicted winner: Lily Gladstone
- Emma Stone – Poor Things
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Annette Bening – Nyad
- Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
‘Best Supporting Actress’
The supporting acting categories are often more interesting than the leading ones, with the latter feeling as though they’re already wrapped up before the ceremony has even started. Just look at the wealth of talent on display in the ‘Best Supporting Actress’ category, with regular movie fans hoping America Ferrera takes home the prize for her scene-stealing role in Barbie, while many others are rooting for Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer.
But it’s nice to see that it’s likely the Oscar will go to the most worthy nominee, with Da’Vine Joy Randolph giving a magnificent performance in Alexander Payne’s indie Christmas flick The Holdovers. Forming part of the beloved trio of leading actors, Randolph gives the film an edge that makes The Holdovers impossible not to fall in love with.
Predicted winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
- America Ferrera – Barbie
- Jodie Foster – Nyad
‘Best Supporting Actor’
We’d spoken about how this year’s ‘Best Supporting Actor’ award seemed to be dominated by actors playing characters in the throes of toxic masculinity, and there’s some serious talent on offer in the process, from Ryan Gosling’s hilarious portrayal of Ken in Barbie to Mark Ruffalo’s stultifying efforts as a sexually debauched brat lawyer in Poor Things.
However, even up against Robert De Niro and Killers of the Flower Moon, it looks as though Robert Downey Jr. will win this year’s award, having already taken the BAFTA prize. His performance as the United States Atomic Energy Commission member Lewis Strauss, a man with a seeming vendetta against J. Robert Oppenheimer, was nothing short of mesmerising, and despite some strong competition, it’s likely that RDJ will take the award this year.
Predicted winner: Robert Downey Jr
- Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
‘Best Adapted Screenplay’
Talk about heavy hitters. The nominations fighting for supremacy in the ‘Best Adapted Screenplay’ category are fierce, with each one worthy of some sort of plaudits, aside from Barbie, whose inclusion in this award is questionable. While Nolan could easily take the Oscar for Oppenheimer, this category is usually reserved to praise other films that won’t get as much love, with this one likely to go to Cord Jefferson for American Fiction.
Adapting the 2001 novel Erasure by Percival Everett, Jefferson slims down the material and creates a thrilling film that accurately breaks down the damaging stereotypes the black community have suffered for generations.
Predicted winner: American Fiction
- Cord Jefferson – American Fiction
- Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig – Barbie
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
- Tony McNamara – Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
‘Best Original Screenplay’
Frequently, the best films find their stories in the texts of years gone by, leading to some truly brilliant adaptation movies, but this only puts the spotlight on those with original screenplays, films with narratives plucked from the bright airs of creativity. The ‘Best Original Screenplay’ 2024 Oscars looks to be a fierce competition, with Past Lives and The Holdovers holding serious potential.
The Holdovers surprisingly won the Bafta for ‘Best Original Screenplay’, but our money is on the Academy to recognise Arthur Harari and Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall instead. By transcending contemporary courtroom drama, Triet’s film is captivated by a complex plot that twists and turns and keeps its audience constantly guessing, plus dialogue that proves the genius of its writers.
Predicted winner: Anatomy of a Fall
- Arthur Harari and Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
- David Hemingson – The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer – Maestro
- Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik – May December
- Celine Song – Past Lives
‘Animated Feature’
The ‘Animated Feature’ category has seen much criticism since its inception in 2001, with many lovers of the cinematic format criticising Oscar voters for not giving it enough attention. Indeed, often Disney or Pixar walks away with the prize, but if that happened this year, the Academy building would be egged by animation lovers, with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and the Studio Ghibli film The Boy and The Heron being the favourites.
While The Boy and The Heron would arguably be the more ‘artistic’ choice, there’s no denying quite how spectacular Across the Spider-Verse is. Representing superhero cinema, essentially propping up the suffering genre, Sony’s film, directed by Joaquim Dos Santos, Justin K. Thompson and Kemp Powers, is a marvel of storytelling and action cinema.
Predicted winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Nimona
- Elemental
- The Boy and The Heron
- Robot Dreams
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
‘Best International Feature Film’
While American films often dominate the Oscars, the ‘Best International Feature Film’ category dishes out distinction to the best of the rest of the world. This year’s award looks set to be a close call with Perfect Days by Wim Wenders and J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow seeming like they are standing respective chances.
However, few films were as well received as Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, which details an Auschwitz commandant, his wife and their family trying to live out an idyllic life just on the other side of the concentration camp’s walls. With ingenious direction by Glazer, who opted to install cameras in the film’s house, and a mesmerising by Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest can be nailed on for the win.
Predicted winner: The Zone of Interest
- Io Capitano – Italy
- Perfect Days – Japan
- Society of the Snow – Spain
- The Teacher’s Lounge – Germany
- The Zone of Interest – United Kingdom
‘Best Documentary Short’
The Oscars adore documentaries that address an urgent political or social issue, and we can’t really blame them, especially when the glorious short film The ABCs of Book Banning is up for an award. Delving into the issue of schools banning certain books for their challenging material, the short film interviews the children who have been impacted by such decisions.
Directed by Sheila Nevins, Trish Adlesic and Nazenet Habtezghi, the documentary has already received much publicity thanks to its pertinent subject matter. While some fabulous films are willing to challenge the film for the top prize, such as Sean Wang’s Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó, it’s likely The ABCs of Book Banning will take the award.
Predicted winner: The ABCs of Book Banning
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Island in Between
- The Last Repair Shop
- Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
‘Best Cinematography’
Without visuals, the cinematic medium would be a string of radio plays, so cinematography is perhaps its most vital ingredient. Killer of the Flower Moon was everything we could expect from a modern Martin Scorsese movie with some truly memorable shots, and Poor Things will equally live in the retina for eternity.
However, it’s hard to look beyond Hoyte van Hoytema’s work on Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. Even before the film was released, the trailers proved van Hoytema’s brilliance, with some truly captivating shots of Cillian Murphy in the lead role. Add in several other wider angle shots of Oppenheimer in action, and then, of course, actually capturing the Trinity Test recreation on screen in IMAX and ‘Best Cinematography’ looks to be a dead certainty.
Predicted winner: Oppenheimer
- Hoyte van Hoytema – Oppenheimer
- Rodrigo Prieto – Killers of The Flower Moon
- Matthew Libatique – Maestro
- Robbie Ryan – Poor Things
- Edward Lachman – El Conde
‘Best Costume Design’
Greta Gerwig, Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling will likely be twiddling their thumbs for most of this year’s Academy Awards, but when it comes to ‘Best Costume Design’, they will perk up their ears as Jacqueline Durran surely takes to the stage. She’s certainly deserving of the award, too, making Robbie and the entire supporting cast look like the fantastic plastic dolls they were imitating.
It’s not quite a certainty, however, with Holly Waddington very capable of taking home the award for her marvellous work on Poor Things, making Emma Stone’s Bella Baxter look like an eccentric enigma in every scene.
Predicted winner: Barbie
- Jacqueline Durran – Barbie
- Jacqueline West – Killers of the Flower Moon
- David Crossman and Janty Yates – Napoleon
- Ellen Mirojnick – Oppenheimer
- Holly Waddington – Poor Things
‘Film Editing’
Just what is a film without its editing? The often overlooked cog of the cinematic machine, at least from the public’s perspective, editors have regularly received praise from their directors but rarely from a film’s audience. This year has seen several editors have spools upon spools of film dumped on their desks to somehow make a legible narrative, and they certainly stood up to the task.
Poor Things indeed stands a chance for the way it tells the story of resurrected Bella Baxter, but our money is on Oppenheimer, with Jennifer Lame stitching together a story of genuine historical and political importance, jumping between up close shots of its titular theoretical physicist, then detailing the fear-inducing detonation of the atomic bomb that would change the world forever.
Predicted winner: Oppenheimer
- Laurent Sénéchal – Anatomy of a Fall
- Kevin Tent – The Holdovers
- Thelma Schoonmaker – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Mavropsaridis – Poor Things
‘Makeup and Hairstyling’
There’s always a collection of films that deserve the award for ‘Makeup and Hairstyling’, one of the industry’s most underappreciated areas of artistry. When it comes to this year’s crop of nominations, Luisa Abel could take home the award for her subtle work on Oppenheimer and Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston would also be worthy of plaudits for their work in Poor Things.
Yet, this award often goes to the most spectacular transformation using makeup, and no film better reflects this than Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, with Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell doing spectacular work to make the director and lead star look just like Leonard Bernstein.
Predicted winner: Maestro
- Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue – Golda
- Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell – Maestro
- Luisa Abel – Oppenheimer
- Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston – Poor Things
- Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé – Society of the Snow
‘Original Score’
This year’s ‘Original Score’ award looks to be a three-horse race between the late Robbie Robertson’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Ludwig Göransson’s Oppenheimer and new-to-the-scene Jerskin Fendrix, who offered up his talents for Poor Things. The Academy might plan to go with Robertson in the sentimental move, but the logical option would be Göransson.
The scores in all of Christopher Nolan’s films are simply stunning, and Göransson has provided for the legendary director for the second time. J. Robert Oppenheimer’s theme is one that balances good and evil, echoing the kind of moral conundrum Cillian Murphy’s character faces throughout the film. Throw into the mix of moments of true intensity as the world prepares for eternal change, and Oppenheimer seems like a dead certainty for ‘Original Score’.
Predicted winner: Oppenheimer
- Laura Karpman – American Fiction
- John Williams – Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Robbie Robertson – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ludwig Göransson – Oppenheimer
- Jerskin Fendrix – Poor Things
‘Original Song’
The Oscar for ‘Original Song’ is one of the more unusual awards that gains a genuine amount of interest from viewers, with many eager to see their favourite musicians perform. Sometimes, this category can be a tight race, but Billie Eilish may as well have it in the bag thanks to her song ‘What Was I Made For?’ which gave Greta Gerwig’s Barbie one of its most meaningful moments.
Indeed, Gerwig’s film may not have even been fully appreciated for its genuine emotional weight if it hadn’t been for Eilish’s song, which has since gone on to be streamed hundreds of millions of times online.
Predicted winner: ‘What Was I Made For?’
- ‘The Fire Inside’ – Flamin’ Hot
- ‘I’m Just Ken’ – Barbie
- ‘It Never Went Away’ – American Symphony
- ‘Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)’ – Killers of the Flower Moon
- ‘What Was I Made For?’ – Barbie
‘Production Design’
This year was an absolute feast for the eyes in the ‘Production Design’ category at the Oscars, from the intensity of Ridley Scott’s Napoleon’s battlefields to the plastic pinkness of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie. However, few films of the last year were as mesmerising as Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things, a production masterpiece from beginning to end.
James Price, Shona Heath and Zsuzsa Mihalek are up for the award for their work of ridiculous talent in bringing Lanthimos’s adaptation of Alasdair Gray’s 1992 novel of the same name to life. The art of Poor Things is just about the best of any film, with stunning scenes of London, Paris, and Alexandria that are all impressive, plus an overall art direction that never fails to captivate, and has to be the winner of this year’s ‘Production Design’ award.
Predicted winner: Poor Things
- Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer – Barbie
- James Price, Shona Heath, Zsuzsa Mihalek – Poor Things
- Jack Fisk, Adam Willis – Killers of The Flower Moon
- Ruth De Jong, Claire Kaufman – Oppenheimer
- Arthur Max, Elli Griff – Napoleon
‘Best Sound’
This may be the most highly contested technical category at the 2024 Academy Awards, with each one of the nominated movies deserving of plaudits. Arguably, it should be Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn walking away with the award thanks to their extraordinary work in the Jonathan Glazer holocaust drama Zone of Interest. Still, it’s likely that the Oscar will go elsewhere.
Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell would undoubtedly be worthy of an Oscar for their work in the violent biopic Oppenheimer, bringing the inner turmoil of the titular character to life through sound alone. Yet, there may be a few critics arguing Glazer’s film is better deserving of the gold.
Predicted winner: Oppenheimer
- Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic – The Creator
- Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic – Maestro
- Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor – Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell – Oppenheimer
- Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn – The Zone of Interest
‘Visual Effects’
Blockbuster movies have received more and more credibility at the Oscars as the years have rolled by, and this year has seen Gareth Edwards’ sci-fi action film The Creator being nominated for ‘Visual Effects’ as well as ‘Best Sound’, with the John David Washington, Gemma Chan and Ken Wanatabe-starring film expected to take the former prize.
Taking place in 2070, 15 years after artificial intelligence detonates a nuclear explosion in Los Angeles, a war between AI and the human race rages on, and The Creator charts the hopes of ending it. Any science fiction film ought to be judged on its special effects, and The Creator is absolutely stunning, bringing a futuristic vision of planet Earth to life.
Predicted winner: The Creator
- Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould – The Creator
- Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima – Godzilla Minus One
- Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould – Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning
- Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek – Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
- Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould – Napoleon
‘Documentary Feature’
One of the most unjustly ignored categories at the Oscars is the award for ‘Documentary Feature’; however, maybe this won’t be the case in 2024, with Mstyslav Chernov’s essential study 20 Days in Mariupol likely to take home the main prize. Telling the story of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the documentary follows a team of journalists trapped in the city of Mariupol who continue their vital work regardless.
An essential film that speaks to one of the world’s most tragic and urgent conflicts, it would be a surprise to see Chernov walk away from the Academy Awards without an Oscar in hand.
Predicted winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President
- The Eternal Memory
- Four Daughters
- To Kill a Tiger
- 20 Days in Mariupol
‘Short Film (Animated)’
While it is always the feature-length films that take the spotlight at the Oscars each year, with their weaving narratives and era-spanning runtimes, the Academy Awards is equally an opportunity for short film directors to flex their creative muscles and this year might just see recognition in the animated category for Tal Kantor’s Letter to a Pig.
An Israeli-French production, Letter to a Pig focuses on generational trauma across 17 heart-breaking minutes, telling of a Holocaust survivor reading a letter to the pig who saved his life to a class full of teenagers. Having already been commended at a number of festivals, despite strong competition, it looks as though Kantor’s film will scoop the prize.
Predicted winner: Letter to a Pig
- Letter to a Pig
- Ninety-Five Senses
- Our Uniform
- Pachyderme
- War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
‘Short Film (Live Action)’
Arguably, the three short film awards at the Oscars are the most important in the entire ceremony, allowing for burgeoning talent to flourish as a result of their low-budget debut work. Yet, this year, it’s something of a crime to see The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar as the front-runner, with the Netflix-backed Wes Anderson somewhat overqualified for the category.
With voters having previously admitted that they rarely even watch these films, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar will almost certainly win. Still, time should be spent exploring each of the other movies. Though also backed by Netflix, The After is an excellent short drama from Misan Harriman; meanwhile, Nazrin Choudhury created a pertinent film about abortion with Red, White and Blue.
Elsewhere, the powerful Danish short Knight of Fortune by Lasse Lyskjær Noer will likely draw out a tear, and Vincent René-Lortie’s Invincible is an incredibly-shot coming-of-age tale.
Predicted winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
- The After
- Invincible
- Knight of Fortune
- Red, White and Blue
- The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
