Oscars Predictions: What should, will, and could win at the 2026 Academy Awards?
As is often the case, a complex award season with many contenders is ultimately reduced to a handful of films vying for the top prizes, and while the Academy Awards race is theoretically headed in a clear direction, there’s also room for surprises.
There were many great films in 2025, many of which were recognised by the Academy, but the Oscars have run into an issue in which its membership seems to be dwindling in its responsibility to see as many titles as possible. Without including the shorts, there were 35 total films that were represented in the nominations, with most non-‘Best Picture’ contenders only receiving a single nod.
It’s ironic that the Oscar race is often seen as synonymous with the festival circuit, but then, the year’s two frontrunners both debuted without the backing of Sundance, Cannes, Venice, or Toronto. Both One Battle After Another and Sinners were audience-friendly movies that survived on strong word-of-mouth, and they’re both fascinatingly from the embattled studio Warner Bros. The greatest tragedy of the award season is that, with the new reign of Paramount under David Ellison, it doesn’t seem like either of these titles would have been greenlit in the first place.
The race for ‘Best Picture’ seems like a done deal, similar to the dominance of Anora, Oppenheimer, and Everything Everywhere All At Once in years past. However, three of the four acting races are very much up for grabs, ensuring that there might be a few shockers come Sunday night.
The films that should, will, and could win at the 2026 Oscars:
‘Best Original Song’
KPop Demon Hunters was the unexpected hit of the year, and managed to eviscerate any Netflix records for viewership while also creating one of the season’s bestselling albums, and ‘Golden’ is a song that became a true cultural phenomenon. Moreover, the Oscars’ decision to only include live performances in the broadcast on ABC for KPop Demon Hunters and Sinners suggests that there are only two possible winners.
That Sinners hasn’t gained more traction in this race is a bit confusing; not only is the ‘I Lied To You’ scene the most acclaimed of the film, but its nominated writers include Miles Caton, the brilliant young actor who turned in the best performance. However, there’s a long history of the Oscars giving ‘Best Original Song’ victories to the ‘Best Animated Feature’ winners, and KPop Demon Hunters is incredibly likely to take home two trophies.
Will win: ‘Golden’, KPop Demon Hunters
Should win: ‘I Lied to You’, Sinners
Could win: ‘I Lied to You’, Sinners
‘Best International Feature’
The ‘Best International Feature’ race has become more exciting, because traditionally the award goes to the nominee that also has a ‘Best Picture’ nomination; as was the case last year, there’s an actual competition because the Oscars nominated two foreign-language films in the top category. The Secret Agent has received a lot of support, but it lacks the director, original screenplay, and editing nominations that Sentimental Value has, which suggests that the Joaquim Trier film appealed to more voters.
Both films are brilliant in their own right, but Sentimental Value is a very classical family drama that represents traditional Oscar interests. The Secret Agent is much thornier, weirder, and reliant on its audience’s awareness of aspects of Brazilian history that could be confusing (such as the severed human leg). Either film would be a worthy winner, but the Oscars missed a chance to give Jafar Panahi a platform with It Was Just An Accident to discuss the real power that art has to stand up to the forces of oppression.
Will win: Sentimental Value
Should win: It Was Just An Accident
Could win: The Secret Agent
‘Best Adapted Screenplay’
One Battle After Another has not only swept all in this category, but won at ceremonies like the Golden Globes, where there is only one writing prize. Given the challenges of adapting the complex work of Thomas Pynchon, Anderson’s script is by far the most ambitious of the nominees and required the most skill to adapt.
Beyond being an opportunity to give another trophy to him after years of snubbing his work, One Battle After Another is filled with the type of memorable lines, clever narrative twists, and thematic relevance that make for a great screenplay. None of the other nominees in the category even come close, with Hamnet being the only contender with the slightest bit of traction, but its criticisms have largely been because of its manipulative elements and shallow analysis of Shakespeare, and it’s not a category that Zhao has been favored in; even when she won ‘Best Picture’ and ‘Best Director’ for Nomadland, she lost the ‘Best Adapted Screenplay’ prize to Florian Zeller for The Father.
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: One Battle After Another
Could win: Hamnet
‘Best Original Screenplay’
Ryan Coogler directed the film with the most Oscar nominations ever, so it would feel a bit odd if he went home empty-handed. If that wasn’t enough to suggest that the Oscars’ resistance to horror doesn’t apply to Sinners, it’s worth noting that the ‘Best Original Screenplay’ category tends to more often award ‘genre’ fare, with past winners including Django Unchained, Get Out, and Promising Young Woman.
Other nominees Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme simply haven’t made much noise outside of their performances; Blue Moon and It Was Just An Accident weren’t nominated for ‘Best Picture’, and the last time a non-‘Best Picture’ nominee won a screenplay Oscar was back in 2004 with Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (which more than likely would have been nominated had the Oscars had ten ‘Best Picture’ nominees). It’s unfortunate that Jafar Panahi, who bravely faced a prison sentence for making his Palme d’Or winner It Was Just An Accident, hasn’t received any broader recognition at the Oscars.
Will win: Sinners
Should win: It Was Just An Accident
Could win: Sentimental Value
‘Best Supporting Actress’
Despite the hesitancy that the Oscars have shown to horror, Amy Madigan has a pretty undeniable narrative. She’s a well-liked veteran with such a storied career that her last nomination was for 1985’s Twice in a Lifetime, which was released before any of the other nominees in her category were born. Aunt Gladys is also by far the most memorable character in contention, and became a true cultural icon thanks to the overperformance of Weapons at the box office.
This is a strong category, but Magidan’s Sag win would indicate that she has the support of her peers, and not just horror buffs. Teyana Taylor’s Golden Globe win didn’t result in the type of viral acceptance speech that tends to excite voters. Wunmi Mosaku’s Bafta win was both in a field where Madigan wasn’t nominated, and another example of the British Academy’s affinity for British actors (Kerry Condon won the same award for Banshees of Inisherin before losing the Oscar). When it comes to Sentimental Value, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas were both so good that they would seemingly split the vote and allow Madigan to triumph.
Will win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Should win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Could win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
‘Best Supporting Actor’
After being absent on the campaign trail and refusing to engage in superfluous promotional events, Sean Penn seems to have earned himself a third Oscar, which would tie the all-time record for male actors with Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Walter Brennan. That Penn won both Sag and Bafta, the two award bodies that share voters with the Academy, suggests that none of his personal controversies has dismayed how well-respected he is as an actor.
There’s a case to be made for every actor in the category, but Jacob Elordi isn’t likely to be one of the youngest winners ever, and Benicio del Toro isn’t likely to surpass his own co-star. Delroy Lindo’s nomination was a surprise that serves as a nice tribute to a legendary career, but he has a small role in Sinners that would make for an underwhelming winner. Stellan Skarsgård has the benefit of being a beloved veteran in a popular movie, but the reception to Sentimental Value has cooled since it scored nine nominations. In Penn’s favour, the Oscars love to award villains in the supporting category, such as Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men, Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds, and JK Simmons in Whiplash.
Will win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Should win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Could win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
‘Best Actress’
Compared to the hectic ‘Best Actor’ race, Jessie Buckley’s presumed victory for ‘Best Actress’ is seemingly a cakewalk. In addition to winning every major precursor, her win would represent the only possibility for Hamnet, a film that earned eight total nominations; while it’s been more divisive than early reviews suggested, even the most ardent critics of Hamnet can admit that Buckley’s performance is strong.
She also benefits from a lack of competition; Emma Stone isn’t likely to become the fifth woman to win at least three Oscars with Bugonia, Renata Reinsve has received the least traction of the Sentimental Value stars, and Song Sung Blue is essentially a television movie that snagged Kate Hudson a nomination because of her relentless campaigning. The best performance in the category is Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, but the tiny A24 film is so dark, unusual, and underseen that the critical raves are unlikely to convert into votes.
Will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Should win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Could win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
‘Best Actor’
The ‘Best Actor’ race is the most fraught that it has been in years, as the slam-dunk victory that Timothée Chalamet seemingly had after Marty Supreme’s rave reviews has been questioned as the film has grown more divisive. While the ridiculous controversy regarding his opera comments won’t hurt him any more than Michael B Jordan’s support of Jonathan Majors or Leonardo DiCaprio’s luxury hotel investment, Marty Supreme could easily join the ranks of past contenders like The Irishman or American Hustle that racked up many nominations without a win.
Chalamet is loved enough by the Academy to have four nominations already, including one as a producer on Marty Supreme. Although he lost a Bafta to the non-Oscar nominee Robert Aramayo for I Swear, Jordan’s Sag win isn’t an indication that he’ll be victorious; this is the same prize that Chalamet won himself last year for A Complete Unknown before losing to Adrien Brody at the Oscars, and no one has ever won back-to-back Sag awards for ‘Best Actor’. The notion of an upset for Wagner Moura, who won the Cannes prize, was diminished when he was shut out of both Sag and Bafta. At this point, DiCaprio would be the more likely option, given that he’s in the ‘Best Picture frontrunner’. The greatest injustice of the season is that there hasn’t been more traction for Ethan Hawke, whose transformative performance as Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon is unlike anything he’s ever done before.
Will win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Should win: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Could win: Michael B Jordan, Sinners
‘Best Director’
While One Battle After Another has shown no signs of weakness, Paul Thomas Anderson hasn’t a smidge of competition for the ‘Best Director’ prize. In addition to sweeping every precursor, he has also crafted the type of visceral, athletic achievement that tends to take the prize, and it happens to be for a very personal film for him as a father of a mixed-race daughter. Moreover, he has somehow never won an Oscar and is considered to be long overdue, judging by the unyielding affection for previous films like Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood, and Phantom Thread.
It doesn’t hurt that Anderson doesn’t have much competition; Joaquin Trier made a film that is most defined by its writing and performances, Josh Safdie’s style might be too aggressive for older Academy voters, Chloé Zhao’s work has proven to be divisive, and Ryan Coogler is more likely to win in the ‘Best Original Screenplay’ category.
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Could win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
‘Best Picture’
Should One Battle After Another lose to Sinners, it would be both a statistical jawdropper and a historical injustice on the Oscars’ part. Given that the former has already picked up the top prizes at the Golden Globes, Bafta, PGA, DGA, WGA, Critics’ Choice, LAFCA, Gothams, NYFCC, and NSFC awards, a history-defying upset would have to occur. Some might argue that the Sag ensemble win would give Sinners an edge, comparable to the shocking wins of Crash and Moonlight over Brokeback Mountain and La La Land, respectively. The difference is that in those cases, Brokeback Mountain and La La Land sustained backlash and missed other critical nominations, whereas One Battle After Another has swept nearly every prize and is broadly liked.
Sinners is a good film and a sign that the Oscars had broadened its horizons to genre stories after years of disregarding fantasy, action, and horror films. However, it’s also a film with third-act problems, underdeveloped supporting characters, and some mixed metaphors regarding what its vampires represent. One Battle After Another isn’t just the best film of the year, but a wake-up call to America that has become more relevant with each passing day.
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: One Battle After Another
Could win: Sinners
