Oscars 2023: Far Out’s predictions for the 95th Academy Awards
We’re five years away from the centenary year of the Academy Awards, where the confetti will be denser and the red carpet several metres larger. Still, for now, we’ll have to settle for the 95th version of the annual industry ego-stroke. With films from the likes of Steven Spielberg, Baz Luhrmann and James Cameron, the 2023 show is lining up to be something of a classic Hollywood affair that features a lineup of blockbuster favourites and plucky arthouse flicks.
Although the show had been losing its pertinence in modern years, the controversy of the 2022 edition, in which Will Smith shockingly slapped comedian Chris Rock, undoubtedly helped to increase its contemporary appeal, even if the incident had nothing to do with the celebration of cinema. It’s remarkably unlikely that an event of similar cultural magnitude will occur during the 95th Academy Awards, however, even if we secretly hope it does.
Having recently proved to have bettered their voting reputation after the controversy of #OscarSoWhite in 2015, which drew focus toward the lack of diversity among nominees, the 2023 slate of films may have undone much of that work. Despite a staggering number of celebrated films from female filmmakers in 2022, including Charlotte Wells’ Aftersun, Gina Prince-Bythewood’s The Woman King and Laura Poitras’ All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, each of these films were snubbed largely in favour of mainstream male-directed movies.
As the Oscars continue to strive to diversify and improve in line with modern ideals, let’s take a look at how we think the 95th Academy Awards will shape up in 2023.
Oscars 2023 predictions:
Best Picture
Usually, the race for ‘Best Picture’ is a little easier to call, but this year there’s no obvious frontrunner to proceedings. Well, no really obvious one anyway. The Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert movie Everything Everywhere All at Once marginally leads the other nominees after having succeeded at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Critics Choice Awards, where it won ‘Best Picture’.
Elsewhere, Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin is also among the favourites to take home the award for ‘Best Picture’, largely thanks to its mighty ensemble cast that includes the likes of Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Brendan Gleeson and Kerry Condon. Having won ‘Best Film’ at the Baftas, the anti-war drama All Quiet on the Western Front stands a great chance at success, too, especially as the 1930 original took home the highest honour at the 3rd Academy Awards.
Still, after so many years of Hollywood hardship after the devastating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we think the critical and commercial success of Top Gun: Maverick will be too difficult to ignore for the Academy. A stunning blockbuster that harkens back to a bygone era of industry success, Joseph Kosinski’s film represents exactly what Hollywood has been striving to replicate for decades.
Predicted winner: Top Gun: Maverick
- All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger)
- Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron)
- The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
- Elvis (Baz Luhrmann)
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
- The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg)
- Tár (Todd Field)
- Top Gun: Maverick (Joseph Kosinski)
- Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
- Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Best Director
The ‘Best Picture’ winner is often simultaneously awarded with the ‘Best Director’ gong, and of the 94 films to win the former, as many as 67 have taken home the latter in the process. This year promises to be a fiercely fought contest, with Todd Field bringing out the best in Cate Blanchett in Tár and Martin McDonagh doing likewise for his old In Bruges collaborators Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin.
But, we’re predicting that Steven Spielberg will take home the coveted prize for his semi-autobiographical film The Fabelmans, which would mark his third time scooping the distinction, having previously been adorned for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan. Evidently, Spielberg is a favourite of the Academy, so don’t be too surprised to see him take home ‘Best Director’ once again!
Predicted winner: Steven Spielberg
- Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
- Todd Field, Tár
- Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actor
Despite Paul Mescal and Colin Farrell providing the best performances of the year in their respective movies Aftersun and The Banshees of Inisherin, it’s with great regret to inform you that this year’s race involves neither of them. Instead, the Academy will likely either award ‘Best Actor’ to Austin Butler’s impression of ‘the king of rock’ in Elvis or Brendan Fraser’s magnificent comeback role as the protagonist in Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale.
For the sheer romanticism of the comeback story, we think Fraser will take home the award for ‘Best Actor’, with the acceptance speech alone being capable of bringing in good viewing figures for the Academy.
Predicted winner: Brendan Fraser
- Austin Butler, Elvis
- Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brendan Fraser, The Whale
- Paul Mescal, Aftersun
- Bill Nighy, Living
Best Actress
Ana de Armas’ performance as Marilyn Monroe in Blonde drew praise but was largely marred by the several controversies of the film itself, while Andrea Riseborough and Michelle Williams both gave respectable efforts in To Leslie and The Fabelmans, respectively. However, this year’s ‘Best Actress’ award looks to be a straight shootout between Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett.
Yeoh has been sweeping up awards left and right for her role in The Daniels’ Everything Everywhere All at Once, while Blanchett gave the performance of a lifetime as a troubled classical music conductor in Todd Field’s Tár. Given the previous award ceremony results, we’re backing Yeoh to pip Blanchett to the post in what promises to be one of the tightest-fought contests of this year’s Oscars event.
Predicted winner: Michelle Yeoh
- Cate Blanchett, Tár
- Ana de Armas, Blonde
- Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
- Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actress
After Michelle Yeoh takes home the award for ‘Best Actress’ (as per our previous prediction), we believe Stephanie Hsu will follow suit with an Oscar for ‘Best Supporting Actress’. She plays the central antagonist of Everything Everywhere All at Once, who turns out to be more of a central hero once she sees the error of her ways. Helping to establish the central heart of the movie, Hsu’s performance is a knock-out.
Elsewhere, Angela Bassett would make history with a win for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, becoming the first actor from a Marvel movie to take home an Academy Award.
Predicted winner: Stephanie Hsu
- Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Hong Chau, The Whale
- Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
This year’s ‘Best Supporting Actor’ is filled with just vast talent that the nominees could probably challenge for the more-coveted ‘Best Actor’ award too. The Banshees of Inisherin sees two nominees in Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson, the latter of whom certainly matched Colin Farrell (who is up for the ‘Best Actor’ gong.
Brian Tyree Henry of Causeway and Judd Hirsh from The Fabelmans complete the nominee list alongside Ke Huy Quan, who marked his big return to Hollywood with his performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once. It is Quan who we are backing to win the category, as the Academy loves a romance story, and Quan’s career revival is brimming with the stuff.
Predicted winner: Ke Huy Quan
- Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inisherin
- Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
- Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
- Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Adapted Screenplay
It may look a little weird to see Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and Top Gun: Maverick on the list of nominees for ‘Best Adapted Screenplay’ considering that their movies are original concepts. However, the rules dictate that any sequel should be considered an ‘Adapted Screenplay’. With that considered, either of these aforementioned 2022 favourites could indeed take home the award,
With that being said, if the Academy wanted to stay true to the context of ‘Best Adapted Screenplay,’ you would hope they would go for ‘Women Talking’, considering it’s the only nominee on this list that actually well adapts its source material. Although All Quiet on the Western Front is tempting to choose, despite being a great movie, it doesn’t do a great job of accurately adapting the book by Erich Maria Remarque.
Predicted winner: Women Talking
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Living
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Women Talking
Best Original Screenplay
Arguably one of the most important awards of any Oscars ceremony is ‘Best Original Screenplay’, which highlights one of the crucial elements of filmmaking: the story itself. We have seen some excellent and unique stories being told this past year, from multiverse madness in Everything Everywhere All at Once to an “eat the rich” narrative in Triangle of Sadness.
However, we’re picking out Martin McDonagh’s beautifully crafted tale of The Banshees of Inisherin to take home the award this year. The film brilliantly toyed with the conceptual notions of art, boredom and friendship in a way that only the In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths director could muster, although he faces further fierce competition from the likes of Steven Spielberg and Todd Field.
Predicted winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Triangle of Sadness
Animated Feature
The Academy Awards are infamous for their attitudes towards animated movies, constantly snubbing them from the biggest categories whilst regularly picking Disney movies for the award of ‘Best Animated Feature’ despite there being better movies available to celebrate. This year’s collection of nominees is a fine crop, however, including a variety of traditional children’s animations and stop-motion game-changers.
Although Marcel the Shell with Shoes On has warmed hearts, we’d hope to see Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio take home the award, especially considering that the film should be up for ‘Best Picture’ anyway.
Predicted winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
- The Sea Beast
- Turning Red
Best International Feature Film
While the films produced within the United States often dominate the headlines when it comes to the Oscars, it’s always interesting to look at the non-English language films that have drawn acclaim over the last year. This last year we saw some excellent international films, including Argentina, 1985 and The Quiet Girl.
However, this year’s ‘Best International Feature Film’ award looks nailed on to go to Erich Maria Remarque’s German anti-war film All Quiet on the Western Front, which told of an idealistic young soldier who is faced with the brutal and violent realities of World War I when he enlists in the German army. Seeing as the film is also up for ‘Best Picture’, you can bet your bottom dollar Remarque will be taking home at least one prize come the end of the night.
Predicted winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Argentina, 1985
- Close
- EO
- The Quiet Girl
Best Documentary Short
The category for ‘Best Documentary Short’ is an important award that lends a helping hand to blossoming filmmakers, so it’s a shame to see the Oscars fail to give it the credit they deserve. Our pick for the winner is the Kartiki Gonsalves Netflix short The Elephant Whisperers, which tells the story of a couple in South India who dedicate their lives to caring for an orphaned baby elephant named Raghu.
Airing on Netflix, the short documentary demonstrates the diversity of the streaming service and stands as the strongest film among a special category of nominees that includes Joshua Seftel’s Stranger at the Gate.
Predicted winner: The Elephant Whisperers
- The Elephant Whisperers
- Haulout
- How Do You Measure a Year?
- The Marsha Mitchell Effect
- Stranger at the Gate
Best Cinematography
Any great film worth its salt must have excellent cinematography at its core; after all, the unique feature of cinema as an art form is that it is visual in nature. With that in mind, the ‘Best Cinematography’ award is always a fascinating category, and this year has thrown up some excellent shouts for recognition, from Baz Luhrmann’s dazzling, lavish, and ultra-Luhrmannesque Elvis to the intense and sometimes disorienting Tár.
Sam Mendes’ ode to cinema Empire of Light and Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths are also in with a shout, but it’s likely that Erich Maria Remarque’s All Quiet on the Western Front will take home the coveted prize. The epic anti-war film is completely littered with fine cinematic moments that capture the true horrors of warfare.
Predicted winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths
- Elvis
- Empire of Light
- Tár
Best Costume Design
The Marvel movies might be the most financially successful films of contemporary cinema, but the Oscars don’t like to give them too much credit, aside from the Black Panther ‘Best Picture’ nomination in 2019. Still, superhero movies tend to do well in the technical categories, and we believe Ruth E. Carter could take home the Oscar for ‘Best Costume Design’ for her work on the sequel film Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
Taking home the golden statuette would make her the first African American woman to win multiple Oscars, creating history in a category that far too often goes overlooked by the Academy.
Predicted winner: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Babylon
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
Best Film Editing
If a film has not been edited with thorough care and attention, then all the hard work of writing and producing it will likely go to waste. The best films are always edited so that the final cut itself contributes to the themes of the movie. This year’s ‘Best Film Editing’ award sees several intense works of cinema competing for recognition.
Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis is worth a punt, as is the ever-intensifying Tár. However, it would be hard to look beyond The Daniels’ Everything Everywhere All at Once, as the editing team of the film had the tremendous task of editing, well, everything, from several transitions through the multiverse to making sure the well-written moments of comedy are snappy. The amount of work that went into Everything Everywhere All at Once is ludicrous, so we think it will take home the ‘Film Editing’ Award later this week.
Predicted winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
Makeup and Hairstyling
In modern cinema, authenticity has become pivotal, and makeup and hairstyling have long been crucial to achieving this. Such may explain why two superhero movies have made it into this category, with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and The Batman both benefiting from excellent characterisation in bringing their eclectic characters to life whilst keeping them grounded in some sort of reality.
The category is strong, but we think Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will take home the award for its staggering attention to detail from the leading cast to each and every supporting character. It stands out from the other Marvel movies, being the one release that seems to focus on each part of the filmmaking process.
Predicted winner: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- The Whale
Best Original Score
While a film would be little more than a radio drama without its visual element, it’s equally true that the score of a film can tie all its themes together and elevate certain moments into genuine pieces of art. This year’s ‘Best Original Score’ nominees featured some of the finest moments of marriage between the visual and the audial; amongst them, the frantic nature of Damien Chazelle’s Babylon and the tender Irishness of The Banshees of Inisherin.
Also up for the gong are The Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere All at Once, with both containing truly moving scores. However, our money is on All Quiet on the Western Front to take home the big prize at the end of this year’s ceremony, as its beautiful construction helped the film to reinforce the fact that war will always serve as an ugly reminder of the true barbarity of humankind.
Predicted winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Babylon
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
Original Song
The list of ‘Best Picture’ nominees at this year’s Academy Awards is largely on point, but there are a few films that were shockingly snubbed, including Charlotte Wells’ Aftersun and S. S. Rajamouli’s RRR. Considering it’s been disregarded in every other category, we think RRR will be given the credit it deserves by taking home a win for ‘Best Original Song’ for the tune ‘Naatu Naatu’ by M. M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj and Kaala Bhairava.
Always tough to call (unless there’s a James Bond theme in contention), this year’s crop is no different, though we think ‘Naatu Naatu’ will slightly pip ‘Lift Me Up’ from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to the post.
Predicted winner: ‘Naatu Naatu’, RRR
- ‘Applause’, Tell It Like a Woman
- ‘Hold My Hand’, Top Gun: Maverick
- ‘Lift Me Up’, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- ‘Naatu Naatu’, RRR
- ‘This is a Life’, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Production Design
Unsurprisingly, the nominees for the ‘Best Production Design’ award all have rather handsome budgets behind them, for the more money one can throw at a film, the better it will likely look, at least in terms of a Hollywood aesthetic. This year saw some true spectacles and feasts for the eyes, including Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis and Damien Chazelle’s Elvis.
While those two films certainly dazzled with their set and costume design, it would be hard to look past the CGI brilliance of James Cameron’s long-awaited Avatar sequel, The Way of Water. We’re certainly backing the film to take home ‘Best Production Design’ because, although it was a rather tedious offering in terms of narrative, it looked just about as amazing as one could have dreamed of.
Predicted winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Babylon
- Elvis
- The Fabelmans
Best Sound
Like many of the technical categories, ‘Best Sound’ is always tricky to call, with the award usually going to a Hollywood blockbuster that managed to stun audiences across the world. In keeping with this, we’re opting for Top Gun: Maverick to take home the award thanks to its spectacular flying sequences. Aside from the Tom Cruise-led movie, the anti-war flick All Quiet on the Western Front is most likely to take home the award for ‘Best Sound’.
Still, in addition to the spectacular cinematography from Claudio Miranda, the sound in Top Gun: Maverick helps to create a truly immersive experience, without it, the film would lack cinematic oomph.
Predicted winner: Top Gun: Maverick
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Elvis
- Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects
The ‘Best Visual Effects’ category is often dominated by the likes of Marvel films and heady blockbusters, so it’s unsurprising to see the likes of Top Gun: Maverick, The Batman and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever amongst this year’s nominees. Either of those films could take home the award, but we think that there is one clear front-runner.
James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water is an absolute feast for the eyes, even if its over-gratuitous three-hour-plus runtime means one might grow weary of being hit over the head with blue: blue people, blue water, blue everything. Still, Cameron’s film would be deserving of taking home ‘Best Visual Effects’ for it just looks undeniably superb.
Predicted winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Top Gun: Maverick
Documentary Feature
Just like the awards for ‘Best Animated Feature’ and ‘Best International Feature Film’, the Oscar for ‘Best Documentary Feature’ is too often overlooked, with this year’s nominees including some of the most impressive moves of the past year. Laura Poitras’ All the Beauty and the Bloodshed should’ve really been nominated for ‘Best Picture’, whilst Fire of Love well toed the line between arthouse cinema and thrilling documentary spectacle.
But, for its political importance, we think the Daniel Roher documentary Navalny, which explores the life, imprisonment and near-fatal poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, should take home the golden statuette.
Predicted winner: Navalny
- All that Breathes
- All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
- Fire of Love
- A House Made Of Splinters
- Navalny
Best Short Film (Animated)
Naturally, the Academy Awards are dominated by big feature-length films, but we ought not to forget about the humble short, for a great short film can pack just as much of a punch as a big-budget blockbuster or a lengthy indie drama. There were some brilliant animated shorts this past year, including The Flying Sailor, Ice Merchants and, erm, My Year of Dicks.
We’re backing The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse to take home this year’s prize, though. The film is based on the 2019 illustrated book by Charlie Macksey, tells of the newfound friendships between the four titular characters, and features voice work from the likes of Gabriel Byrne, Idris Elba and Tom Hollander, which all contribute to making it this year’s big contender.
Predicted winner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
- The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
- The Flying Sailor
- Ice Merchants
- My Year of Dicks
- An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake, and I Think I Believe it
Short Film (Live Action)
We’ve already discussed the overlooked importance of the short film awards, with the award for ‘Best Live Action Short Film’ arguably being the most significant of its kind on the night. Giving the chance for promising filmmakers to take their first steps on the industry ladder, this same award has been given to such names as Andrea Arnold, Riz Ahmed and Martin McDonagh over the years.
This year, we think the winner of ‘Best Live Action Short Film’ will be the much-publicised Ross White and Tom Berkeley movie An Irish Goodbye, an Irish movie that follows a pair of estranged brothers who are reunited in tragic circumstances.
Predicted winner: An Irish Goodbye
- An Irish Goodbye
- Ivalu
- Le Pupille
- Night Ride
- The Red Suitcase
