The 1974 hit song Billy Joel expected to flop: “It’s the smae thing, over and over”

Who is to say what makes a hit? Not just a hit in terms of a track that climbs to the top of the charts, but a hit that does well commercially and stays in the hearts of listeners for generations. What are the essential parts that an artist needs to put into their song so that it resonates in such a way that it stands the test of time and continues to accumulate fans decades after its release? If anyone should know the secret behind writing hit songs, it would have to be Billy Joel.

The truth is that even the most accomplished songwriters rarely possess a foolproof formula. Musical trends change, audiences evolve and songs often take on lives of their own once they are released into the world. What seems destined for greatness can disappear without a trace, while unlikely tracks can become cultural landmarks.

However, throughout Joel’s career, he’s displayed a knack for songwriting that many others could only dream of possessing. As he wheels out tracks such as ‘Uptown Girl’, ‘We Didn’t Start the Fire’ and ‘Vienna’, you would think that Joel is able to hear a song and recognise whether or not it would be successful immediately. Well, it turns out that’s not the case. 

In 1973, Billy Joel famously released the track ‘Piano Man’, which has since been cemented as one of the musician’s most popular. The heartfelt ballad somehow manages to capture an array of edges to human emotion in a truly inspired way. It seems to highlight both the meaninglessness of existence and the beauty of living all in one, with a chorus that has been sung back to him countless times since its original conception.

Despite the song’s undeniable success, the waltz-style ballad set in a piano bar was released with trepidation from its composer. Joel has gone on record a number of times, saying that when he first put the song out into the world, he was happy with it, but he didn’t think it would take off the way it did. 

Billy Joel - And So It Goes - Documentary - 2025 - HBO
Credit: HBO

That uncertainty highlights the often unpredictable relationship between artists and their audiences. While listeners frequently form emotional attachments to songs based on personal experiences, songwriters are more likely to focus on structure, lyrics and composition, sometimes overlooking the qualities that make a track resonate on a human level.

This could first be because Joel had to cut down the original version of the track, so the one released into the world wasn’t the one he had initially written. When asked why he cut the song from over five minutes to three and a half, he said it was “To make it a single. To get played on top 40 radio they had time limits on what they liked to play.”

However, going into even more detail about the song, Joel said, “It’s a waltz and it’s about a guy in a piano bar, and it’s not even a lyric, it’s a limerick,” he explained, “I think it’s a decent song, but it doesn’t change too much. When you play it on piano as an instrumental, you get the point because it’s the same thing over and over and over.”

If Billy Joel can’t tell when something is going to be a hit, then it may be that nobody will ever know. There is a beauty buried within ‘Piano Man’ that captures listeners’ hearts the moment that they hear it. While all that Joel says about the song is true, the undeniable hit potential is in how much the track moves you. 

Perhaps that is the lesson behind the success of ‘Piano Man’. Technical complexity, innovation and craftsmanship all have their place, but sometimes a song endures because it captures a feeling people recognise in themselves. Joel may have underestimated its potential, but listeners found something timeless within its melancholy humour and everyday characters, turning a modest piano-bar ballad into one of the defining songs of his career.

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